Reflections on our predictions of 2022

Reflections on our predictions of 2022

As 2022 draws to an end, it is both humbling and enlightening looking back at our predictions for 2022 and what we got right and what we did not. 

 

Decarbonization in steel making has continued gathering pace, the increasing importance of scrap (the prices have moved down because of the overall recession however countries are increasingly restricting exports of scrap because of its strategic importance). We also predicted the prices would move down to between US$ 600 to US$700/- Ex Works for Hot Rolled Coils and the end of the pandemic during the summer of 2022. 

 

What we did not predict was that price fall would be even steeper (who would have thought about the Russia-Ukraine war). We also believed that the supply chain woes would continue well into 2022. Here again it is the recession, rising interest rates in the United States and surplus purchasing during the early part of the year that has resulted in lower demand to move cargo from the Far East to the West. 

 

Overall, we have been fairly accurate in our assessments of 2022. We look forward to sharing our predictions for 2023 in the coming days.

Leave a Comment

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Scroll to Top