Stories from the Steel Trenches – Bangladesh, September 2018
Sometimes changes are more noticeable in country if you came in gaps of a few years which a regular visitor may not catch. And Bangladesh has changed noticeably over the last 15-20 years. Of course the horrendous Dhaka traffic remains along with the million dollar smiles and generosity of the Bangladesh people with their Sandesh, Chomchom and more. It is so fleetingly similar to Kolkata with the Bengali culture of learning that prevails. Some of this learning I found in the speakers at the Steel Conference especially from the founder of PHP Family. His mix of Sufi thoughts with business advise seems so necessary for coping with the changing turbulent world we live in.
Change has come to Bangladesh particularly in Steel trade and production. From a dumping ground of all steel in all specs and grades, it is rapidly becoming a large steel producer aiming for 8 million tonnes in the next five years with country growing at above 8% GDP. Like all emerging and developing countries, the growth has initially been in long steel product with companies like BSRM, KYSRM, Abul Khair and numerous other companies leading the way This is not surprising as the rebar’s and wire rods are the back bone for the infrastructure growth which is visible in the bridges and widening roads along with growing sky rises that line the roads.
What is however more surprising is the growing flat steel production. Cold Rolling is happening. So is Galvanizing and Prepainted Steel with PHP, Abul Khair and KYSRM. Again, and not surprisingly, leading machinery manufacturers and service providers worth their salt are here and it is now a hot hunting ground for business.
There is still a short fall in the requirements of steel which is being plugged from China, India and others. It is the feedstock Hot Rolled and raw materials (Iron Ore) which could hold back this growth in flat steel. .For the Hot Rolled a major Chinese venture is coming up near Chittagong in an Economic Zone and given the pace of implementation in Bangladesh, it is a just a matter of time before the country ties in upstream (Hot Rolled Steel) requirement for flat rolled steel like it has done for Long Steel through numerous induction furnaces and imports of scrap to feed them for making steel billets.
So an end to end steel production chain is opening up in Bangladesh. It is there for long steel and matter a time before the HR Production begins for Flat Steel. Gaps will of course remain for specialized steel and for balancing demand and supply. Some caution is always required. All this economic growth will of course be superficial, unless Bangladesh keeps its social fibre intact and the growth it has achieved in social parameters in education and health care, some of which are actually studied and copied across the world. What it now needs is skill development to match the requirements of its growing steel growing manufacturing industry.
Also any growth story, can have an unhappy ending and having to go to IMF with a begging bowl. Excessive debts, unhedged foreign currency loans, fiscal deficits, inflation are something Bangladesh like all developing countries needs to be mindful about as these can be a long-term trap with unintended consequences.
Fortunately, Bangladesh also does have its share of globally renowned economists who need to be there (like umpires in a cricket match) because it is so easy to go overboard when growth takes off.Hopefully, growth in Bangladesh will be equitable and sustainable.
Source: Daanish Ellias – From the Steel Trenches